More on UK retail energy prices

:: economics, doomed, politics

Three days ago I pointed out that the UK government was lying about the influence of the war in Ukraine on UK retail energy prices. Now we have a better idea what that influence might actually be.

The UK government has been lying that the current retail energy cost is largely due to the war in Ukraine. But on 24th May 2022, the head of Ofgem told MPs that the energy price cap was likely to rise to £2,800 from the 1st October 2022, and these predicted rises may be largely due to the war in Ukraine.

Here are details of the cap at various dates, based on Ofgem and the BBC report:

  • 2022, to 30th March 2022: £1,277;
  • 1st April 2022 to 30th September 2022: £1,971, increasing by £693 (differences due to rounding) or 54%;
  • from 1st October 2022 (predicted on 24th May 2022): £2,800, increasing by $829, or 42%, or a cumulative increase of 119%.

So, in 185 days, retail prices will have gone up by 119% – in other words they have gone up by a factor of 2.19, more than double – of which predicted increase rather more than half may be largely due to the war in Ukraine (again: none of the current retail price is due to the war in Ukraine.

Given the coming food catastrophe, which is largely a result of the war in Ukraine, and the grotesque incompetence of the UK government, people will probably both die of cold, and starve in the UK in the winter of 2022–2023. For the second time in a little over two years, the UK government will have failed in its most basic task: keeping its citizens alive.